Posted on December 18, 2024 by Tom Grant
Categorised in: Uncategorised
December is often a time for reflection and looking forwards to the next year. I have been reflecting on our experience of the housing market this year (better behind than ahead of us) and what might lie ahead. Making sense of the statistical data available is a brain teasing exercise while trying to put some of the numbers into perspective and match them with reality can be an even bigger mystery! We know how property prices have fared this year and have a reasonably informed opinion on what is likely to unfold next year, but trying to find reliable figures to substantiate that opinion is a real challenge!
See what you make of this data:
|
Comparable data on house sales, December 2024 |
||||
| 2024 House Price Change | ||||
|
Source |
% change |
Average house value |
||
|
Zoopla |
1.0% |
|
£267,000 |
Asking price |
|
Rightmove |
1.4% |
|
£360,000 |
Asking price |
|
Halifax |
4.8% |
|
£298,000 |
Sale price |
|
Nationwide |
3.7% |
|
£268,144 |
Sale price |
|
HMRC |
2.2% |
|
£289,000 |
Sale price |
|
Land Registry |
2.9% |
|
£291,000 |
Sale price |
|
National agent 1 |
2.4% |
|
n/a |
n/a |
|
National agent 2 |
3.0% |
|
n/a |
n/a |
|
HMRC house sales/tax year (Apr - Mar) |
Per year |
Ave/pcm |
||
|
2007 to 2008 |
|
|
1,473,950 |
122,829 |
|
2011 to 2012 |
|
|
915,860 |
76,322 |
|
2015 to 2016 |
|
|
1,325,570 |
110,464 |
|
2019 to 2020 |
|
|
1,170,280 |
97,523 |
|
2023 to 2024 |
|
|
1,001,570 |
83,464 |
|
SDLT gross receipts in financial year |
£ billion |
|||
|
2019 to 2020 |
|
|
£11.60 |
|
|
2020 to 2021 |
|
|
£8.67 |
|
|
2021 to 2022 |
|
|
£14.10 |
|
|
2022 to 2023 |
|
|
£15.36 |
|
|
2023 to 2024 |
|
|
£11.61 |
|
|
House price index - Office for National Statistics |
||||
|
|
Increase |
|
Jan 2020 |
Nov 2024 |
|
House price index |
25.8% |
|
121.7 |
153.1 |
|
Average sale price |
25.9% |
|
£232,000 |
£292,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Nov 2014 |
Nov 2024 |
|
House price index |
52.6% |
|
100.3 |
153.1 |
|
Average sale price |
52.9% |
|
£191,000 |
£292,000 |
The problem with predictions, much like overly enthusiastic house valuations, is that they are invariably wrong.
Probably the two best known, better quality, national estate agencies have their own dedicated research departments and even they have difficulty with the data. In November 2023 the biggest agency said that house prices would fall by 3% in 2024 but they now say that prices have risen by 2.4%, a 5.45% variance. The other agency predicted in October 2023 that prices would have fallen 7% in that year and a further 4% fall in 2024, with a 5 year cumulative growth of 1.4% by 2027. However, in January this year their opinion changed, 2023 was down a mere 1.8% and the forecast for 2024 changed to a 3% growth (7% variance), with a 5 year cumulative growth of 20.5% by 2028 (a massive variance in just 3 months).
If even those people with all the data and resources available to extrapolate can’t tell you what will happen – is there any chance for us lesser mortals? Well, yes actually. We were consistent with our view that prices would ease in 2023 yet most of the bigger guns were being bullish, only to change their minds, after delivering inflated valuations (to win the instruction?). We have our feet firmly on the ground and can back up our valuations with many years of experience and with sound advice. We are consistent and work hard to provide the most accurate valuation - accurate meaning within 5% of actual sale price achieved.
This year, Grant & Co have sold at 97.01% of guide price (on average), despite a really challenging environment. Our 5-year average is 98.69%, slightly inflated by Covid craziness but reflective of a consistent and realistic approach.
If you want an ego busting house valuation, call in the big boys. If you want a realistic and honest opinion, speak to Grant & Co and discover why we consistently receive 5* Google reviews.
